An Interview with Gail Tverberg Her background is as a casualty actuary, making financial projections within http://www.cheapjerseys11.com/ the insurance industry. She became interested in the question of oil shortages in 2005, and has written and spoken about the expected impact of limited oil supply since then to a variety of audiences: insurance, academic, «peak oil», and more general audiences. Her work can be found on her website, Our Finite World. Interview conducted by. There are several issues: (a) It is hard for US natural gas prices to rise to the point where shale gas extraction will truly be profitable, because of competition with coal in electricity generation.

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  • (b) While natural gas can be used for transportation, it takes time, investment, and guaranteed long term supply for it really to happen. This will be a long, slow process, if it occurs. (c) People won’t stand for «fracking» next door, if the end cheap jerseys result is LNG for Europe or Japan.

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  • We have otherwise «stranded» non shale gas in Alaska that would be a better option to develop and sell abroad. If shale gas does come into widespread use, it will take many years. The quantity will be helpful, but not huge. chaussures asics homme pas cher Furthermore, it will still be natural gas, rather than the fuel we really need, which is cheap oil. James Stafford: The old dream of US energy independence has been finding its way into the headlines again as a combination of resurgent domestic oil production, improvements in vehicle fuel efficiency and the shale boom have led many experts to predict that although it is unlikely, it’s no longer the fantasy it once was. What are your thoughts on US energy independence? Gail Tverberg: I think that the direction in years ahead will be toward reduced trade of all sorts. By definition, every country will become «more independent,» including more «energy independent». Whether or not current lifestyles are supportable with lower trade is another question. Reggie Jackson Jersey James Stafford: Japan recently made the announcement that they aim to phase out nuclear power by 2040.

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  • What is your opinion on this decision and on nuclear energy in general? Can the world live without it? Gail Tverberg: The decision by Japan is worrisome, because there aren’t many good replacement options available. Drew Brees — Purdue Boilermakers Japan has volcanoes, so it may have an option to use geothermal as an option. Also, 2040 is far enough away that other options may become available. Phasing out nuclear in other countries is likely to be difficult. In most countries, this will likely mean «less electricity» or «more coal.» It may also mean higher electricity cost, and lower competitiveness for manufacturers. Germany has already started the process of phasing out nuclear. It will be interesting to see how this works out. In general, I think we should be taking a closer look at nuclear, because we have so few other low carbon options. Asics Pas Cher Site Officiel There is considerable dispute about the extent to which radiation from nuclear is a problem. This question needs to be examined more closely. To use nuclear long term, we need to find ways to do it cheaply and without a huge amount of hot fuel that needs to be kept away from people indefinitely. James Stafford: Renewable energy continues to be a favorite amongst many politicians yet advances are slow and expensive. Do you see renewables making a meaningful contribution to global energy production? And if so over what time period? Gail Tverberg: I have a hard time seeing that intermittent renewables (wind and solar photovoltaics) will play a big role in maintaining grid electricity, because of the stress they place on the grid, and the high cost of needed grid upgrades to handle them. Renewables from wood and biomass are hard to scale up, because wood supply is limited and because biomass use tends to compete with food production. nike goedkoop online Renewables from waste (left over cooking oil, for example) are not something we can count on for the long term, as people stay at home more, and dispose of less waste. Related Articles: Which Biofuels Hold the Most Promise for the Future Interview with Jim Lane All renewables depend heavily on our fossil fuel system. For example, it takes fossil fuels to make new wind turbines and solar panels, to maintain the electrical grid, and to repair roads needed for maintaining the grid system. Biofuels depend on our fossil fuel based agricultural system. nike air max 2017 heren groen I expect that the contribution renewables make will occur primarily during the next 10 or 20 years, and will decline over time, because of their fossil fuel dependence. Quite a few individuals living off grid would like to guarantee themselves long term electricity supply through a few solar panels. This is really a separate application of renewables. It will work as long as the solar panels work, and there are still the required peripherals (batteries, light bulbs, etc.) available perhaps 30 years. James Stafford: Are there any renewable energy technologies you are optimistic about and can see breaking away from the pack to help us extend the fossil fuel age? Gail Tverberg: The technology that is probably best is solar thermal. Nike Air Pegasus Uomo It works like heating a hot water bottle in the sun. This is especially good for reducing the need to use fossil fuels to heat hot water in warm climates. But even this is not going to do a huge amount to fix our problems, especially if they are primarily financial in nature.